from Felix:

Iran Just Lit the Fuse on the Global Reset (Here’s What Smart Money Is Doing)

• Two crowds in every crisis: retail panics, sells, or chases spikes; institutions quietly reposition
• Insider buying at lowest since 2018, with insiders selling the rally, not buying it
• Phase 1 shock is a head fake: even gold dropped as oil spiked, proving panic signals mislead
• Phase 2 repricing asks one question: does conflict change inflation, Fed policy, or supply chains long-term?
• Phase 3 rotation is where money travels, from old winners into new sectors
• Oil historically up around 18% in the three months following a war shock (BofA, 90-year data set)
• Buy the toll collectors, pipelines and storage, not the oil barrel itself; oil effect fades in around 6 months
• Defense multi-year wave: NATO lifting targets from 2% to around 5% of GDP; drone and unmanned AI systems lead
• Gold and silver accumulate on weakness; central banks buying at fastest pace in decades
• Pricing-power stocks weather inflation; look for businesses raising prices without losing customers
• Avoid utilities and REITs: higher-for-longer rates squeeze both dividend yield and borrowing costs
• Financial repression is the mechanism: inflation quietly shrinks national debt, seen post-WWII and again now
• Genius Act plus stablecoins create a captive legal buyer for US debt; Tether already in top 20 global holders
• Weatherford bought Oct 2025 on market signals alone; the war broke out six months later and the position worked out
• Core rule: size every position so no single call can damage the portfolio; know the exit before entering