SocGen: ECB’s QE Will Fail, Needs To Be Increased To €3 TRILLION
There are a bunch of things in the ECB post-mortem note just released by SocGen’s Michel Martinez, reproduced below, but here are the punchlines.
First, on the impact of ECB QE on the economy: “we argue ECB QE could be five times less efficient than in the US. In December, press reports suggested that the ECB had run studies suggesting that a €1000bn QE programme would only boost price levels by 0.2-0.8 after two years, five to nine times less efficient than the studies for the US or the UK. The impact on GDP is not provided, but it would be reasonable to assume the same impact as on inflation on a cumulated basis.”
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